FRAMEWORK FOR THE ANALYSIS OF MUNICIPAL CRIME DATA FROM ADMINISTRATIVE RECORDS: A METHODOLOGICAL PROPOSAL
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.56238/revgeov17n6-087Keywords:
Quantitative Crime Analysis, Administrative Data, Information Management in Public Security, Municipal Risk ClassificationAbstract
Brazilian state public security secretariats routinely produce administrative records of criminal incidents, but lack a standardized analytical protocol to convert these data into reliable territorial diagnoses. This article proposes a four-step framework for the quantitative analysis of municipal crime using administrative data: (1) distributional diagnosis and selection of the appropriate count model; (2) theoretically grounded variable selection with statistical validation; (3) cross-validation through an independent predictive method; and (4) municipal classification by absolute risk level and residual anomaly. The framework is presented as a replicable protocol, with explicit attention to the structural characteristics of administrative crime data that condition methodological choices at each step. Conditions for replicability, internal limitations, and possible extensions to higher-quality data contexts are discussed.
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